Wall Street has almost said it. In a note to clients on Monday morning, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid comes within inches of saying the word “recession” to describe the US economy’s fate during the first half of the year.
It’s not infeasible that the US economy will have shrunk in H1 2015. This is perhaps not the most likely scenario but with Q1 likely to be revised down to around -1.0% and with Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasting +0.7% for Q2 then it’s a distinct possibility. The street is still around 2.5% for Q2 but we probably need some decent hard data soon to justify it.
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